[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Apr 20 00:44:04 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 200041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200041 
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-200215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0572
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 PM CDT WED APR 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/ECENTRAL TX...NRN LA AND SRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209...

VALID 200041Z - 200215Z

THREAT FOR SVR APPEARS TO BE LOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF WW 209 VALID
TIME /02Z/. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY THAT STILL REMAINS
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY NO CLEARANCE OF WW 209 APPEARS WARRANTED
ATTM.

00Z SHV SOUNDING SHOWED A NEARLY UNCAPPED MODERATELY UNSTABLE
PROFILE WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE AND ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS NOW LEFT MOST OF WW 209 IN A
REGION OF NEUTRAL FORCING. ALONG WITH THIS...THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY
THAT WAS ONCE ALONG THE AR/LA BORDER HAS GRADUALLY LIFTED NWD AND IS
NOW ALONG THE FAR NRN EDGE OF WW 209 ACROSS SRN AR. GIVEN LIMITED
REMAINING HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEW TSTM
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY TO OCCUR. FURTHER WEST...ELEVATED
CONVECTION /REF 00Z FWD SOUNDING/ IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT /MUCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG/ WILL LIKELY NOT MOVE INTO WW
209 UNTIL AFTER 02Z GIVEN RECENT OBSERVED CELL MOTIONS. HOWEVER
GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND LIMITED CINH IN PLACE...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS NCENTRAL TX CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY STILL
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EWD AND THUS A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFTER 02Z.

..CROSBIE.. 04/20/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...

33329472 32669545 30989538 31979116 33699119 33559374 

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