[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 192019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192018 
TXZ000-192215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0565
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 PM CDT WED APR 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NCENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 192018Z - 192215Z

ISOLATED SVR HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH DEVELOPING ELEVATED
CONVECTION AS IT MOVES FROM SWRN INTO CENTRAL/NCENTRAL TX THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. ATTM A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

REGIONAL VWP DATA INDICATES THAT THE STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION WAS
LOCATED IN THE 1-2 KM LAYER. IN THIS LAYER...MOISTURE WAS INCREASING
BENEATH A CAPPING INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 3 KM. SUFFICIENT
MOISTENING/ASCENT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST 1-2 HRS TO INITIATE A
FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER SWRN TX 50-75 MILES NORTH OF THE SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSPECTION OF RECENT RUC/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG OF ELEVATED MUCAPE IS POSSIBLE IF THE
MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION IS NEGATED. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z...IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THE
COVERAGE AND/OR INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION THAT RECENTLY DEVELOPED
WILL INCREASE. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION BEGINS TO INCREASE IN
INTENSITY...FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS COMBINED WITH 40-50
KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR BE SUPPORTIVE OF A THREAT FOR SVR HAIL NEWD
INTO NCENTRAL TX.

..CROSBIE.. 04/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

33219708 31750007 30930076 30670058 30789931 31689762
32339650 33139607 33309639 

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