[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 191840
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191839 
GAZ000-ALZ000-192015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0562
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0139 PM CDT WED APR 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AL/NWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 208...

VALID 191839Z - 192015Z

STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE -- MOST OF WHICH REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED ON THE COOL SIDE OF SWWD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE WARM
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS MAXIMIZED.

STEEP LAPSE RATES JUST OFF THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE
TO STRONG INSTABILITY...REFLECTED BY OBJECTIVELY-ANALYZED 3500 TO
4000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE ACROSS NERN MS/NWRN AL -- W OF OUTFLOW
WITHIN WARM SECTOR.

THOUGH SOME POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR -- AND THEN
ORGANIZE AND RIDE SEWD ALONG -- SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...IN WHICH
CASE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WOULD INCREASE...IT APPEARS THAT MAIN
SEVERE THREAT MAY REMAIN HAIL WITH SLIGHTLY-ELEVATED STORMS ON COOL
SIDE OF OUTFLOW.

WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- AND ASSOCIATED STORM DEVELOPMENT --
CONTINUING TO PROGRESS SWWD TOWARD WRN PORTIONS OF WW OVER
AL...THREAT MAY SPILL JUST W OF CURRENT WW AREA WITH TIME. 
HOWEVER...OVERALL WWD EXTENT OF THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY APPARENT
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/CONVERGENCE AXIS MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NWRN
AL.

..GOSS.. 04/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...

34958591 34268384 33008303 32378555 32918768 34938746 

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