[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 191258
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191258 
GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-191500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0559
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 AM CDT WED APR 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TN THROUGH NWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 191258Z - 191500Z

THUNDERSTORMS MAY INTENSIFY LATER THIS MORNING AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD
THROUGH SERN TN AND INTO NWRN GA. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A SQUALL LINE WAS MOVING SEWD THROUGH ERN TN AT
AROUND 35 KT. THE 12Z RAOB FROM ATL SHOWS THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO BE
STABLE...BUT WITH MODERATE MUCAPE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS EXIST THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
GA...BUT THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MIX OUT FROM THE NW
ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DESTABILIZE. STEEP LAPSE RATES
UPSTREAM WILL SPREAD EWD ABOVE THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES.
RAOB DATA SUGGEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S ARE NEEDED FOR
STORMS TO BECOME SURFACE BASED...AND THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SEWD ADVANCING
STORMS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...BUT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES INCLUDING BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELLS.

..DIAL.. 04/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...

33848478 35068565 35288447 34728415 34028400 

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