[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Apr 18 23:30:28 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 182328
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182327 
IAZ000-190100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0548
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0627 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN IA.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 182327Z - 190100Z

SEVERE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN IA. AREA
IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OCCLUDED FRONT NEAR LINE FROM 20 N FSD...50 W
DSM...35 NE STJ.  THIS FRONT SHOULD FORM CONTINUE MOVING EWD 15-20
KT ACROSS WRN IA...DENOTING WRN EDGE OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL.  DISCRETE AND POTENTIALLY SUPERCELLULAR TSTMS HAVE FORMED
OVER NWRN MO PORTION OF FRONT...IN NRN PORTIONS WW 199...WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FARTHER N.  ALTHOUGH MODIFIED RUC
SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG SBCINH...FAVORABLE MUCAPES AND VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES ARE EVIDENT IN PROFILER DATA AND MODIFIED RAOBS. 
EXPECT AT LEAST FEW SEVERE TSTMS TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THIS AREA
ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT.  MOST PROBABLE NEAR-TERM RISK WILL BE ACROSS
PORTIONS DECATUR/WAYNE/LUCAS/MONROE/APPANOOSE COUNTIES...INVOF
PROJECTED TRACKS OF MO TSTMS.  MAIN THREAT IS LARGE HAIL. 
PROSPECTIVE INFLOW LAYER WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE ELEVATED
WITH NWD EXTENT...INDICATING DIMINISHING WIND/TORNADO POTENTIAL NWD
ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA.

..EDWARDS.. 04/18/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...

40609411 41239431 41709430 42199414 42499371 42439315
42159275 41309245 40609225 

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