[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 182246
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182245 
MOZ000-190045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0546
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0545 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...MO.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 199...

VALID 182245Z - 190045Z

DEEP CB DEVELOPMENT NOW EVIDENT OVER NWRN AND SWRN PORTIONS
WW...SPECIFICALLY FROM SZL AREA NWWD TOWARD GENTRY COUNTY. 
ADDITIONAL TOWERS ARE EVIDENT ON VIS IMAGERY OVER HICKORY COUNTY. 
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FILL IN BETWEEN THESE AREAS DURING NEXT 1-2
HOURS. OPTIMAL COMBINATION OF BUOYANCY AND SHEAR APPEARS TO BE IN
AIR MASS BETWEEN MKC-COU...SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL MO.  TSTMS FARTHER NW
MAY DEVELOP SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS BUT WILL LIFT NEWD OVER
RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS NEAR IA/MO BORDER.

22Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OCCLUDED FRONT FROM NWRN CORNER IA SSEWD
OVER CLINTON/RAY COUNTIES MO...WHERE WARM/COLD FRONTAL OCCLUSION IS
PROPAGATING SEWD ATTM. COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD TO VICINITY JLN AND
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EWD 15-20 KT. WARM FRONT -- ANALYZED FROM RAY
COUNTY SEWD PAST VIH TO VICINITY WRN TIP OF KY...LIFTING NEWD
APPROXIMATELY 10 KT.  WEAK MESOLOW IS EVIDENT INVOF SZL..ALONG
CONFLUENCE LINE THAT IS ANALYZED FROM NEAR OCCLUSION POINT SSEWD TO
NEAR SGF.  OCCLUDED/COLD FRONTS AND CONFLUENCE LINE ALSO ARE EVIDENT
IN EAX REFLECTIVITY LOOPS AS FINE LINES.  PRIMARY AREAS OF
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN ALONG OCCLUDED FRONT N OF I-70.  FARTHER
S...ACTIVITY SHOULD FORM MAINLY ALONG CONFLUENCE LINE...PARTICULARLY
AS COLD FRONT MERGES AND ENHANCES BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE. 
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE E OF CONFLUENCE LINE WHERE
SLY/SSELY FLOW IS PRESENT...AND EVEN MORE FAVORABLE ALONG WARM
FRONT. ACCORDINGLY...0-3 KM SRH RANGES FROM LESS THAN 100 J/KG
BETWEEN COLD FRONT AND CONFLUENCE LINE TO 200-300 J/KG ALONG AND E
OF WARM FRONT...WHERE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALSO IS MAXIMIZED.  MODIFIED
21Z SGF RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
8-9 DEG C/KM SUPPORTING MLCAPES 3000-3500 J/KG...NEAR AND SE OF
MESOLOW.

..EDWARDS.. 04/18/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...

37539110 37549365 40549488 40539224 

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