[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Apr 16 20:45:23 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 162043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162043 
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-162215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0529
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...IL...IND

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 193...195...

VALID 162043Z - 162215Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST ACROSS ERN IL
AND INTO WRN IND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW
REDEVELOPS EWD ALONG WARM FRONT OVER THESE AREAS.

AN ARC OF SEVERAL INTENSE SUPERCELLS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FROM SCNTRL TO CNTRL IL. NEW
DEVELOPMENT WAS ALSO OCCURRING WEST OF THE INITIAL BAND OF
STORMS...ACROSS LINCOLN...WRN STANFORD..AND EL PASO COUNTIES...
INDICATING STRONG ASCENT WAS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS THIS REGION.
FORCING AND DEEP SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. DISCRETE CELLS MOVING INTO BACKED
SURFACE FLOW OVER ERN IL WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL SHEAR FOR TORNADOES. EVENTUALLY...CELL MERGERS MAY SUPPORT THE
EVOLUTION INTO A LARGER SCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.

..CARBIN.. 04/16/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...

38818533 38528687 38588843 38509026 39609011 40769109
40709218 40619248 41289236 42189222 42109030 41578886
41248816 41058560 

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