[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 160346
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160346 
ILZ000-IAZ000-WIZ000-MOZ000-160545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0521
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1046 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/SERN IA...NERN MO...EXTREME NWRN
IL.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 160346Z - 160545Z

BAND OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS NOW OVER ERN-MOST PORTIONS WW 192 IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD TO AREA BETWEEN CID-UIN THROUGH APPROXIMATELY
7Z.  MAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL TRANSITION TO HAIL...WITH OCCASIONAL
STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY OVER MO.  AREA WILL
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE STRENGTHENING WITH TIME ACROSS THIS AREA
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX APCHS...ASSOCIATED WITH NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER ERN NEB.  HOWEVER...GIVEN DECELERATION
OF THAT CYCLONE AND FCST MOTION OF MAIN BAND OF LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE
FORCING...PRIND ACTIVITY WILL OUTRUN EWD SPREAD OF OPTIMAL
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AS WELL.  INFLOW PARCELS ARE FCST TO BECOME MORE
ELEVATED OFF SFC WITH TIME AND WITH NWD EXTENT...GIVEN COMBINATION
OF DIABATIC SFC COOLING AND PRECIP COOLING OVER IA.  PARCELS MAY
REMAIN NEARLY SFC-BASED FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS NERN
MO...WHERE BOTH MUCAPE AND SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. 
EFFECTIVE SHEARS 35-50 KT ARE EVIDENT IN RUC FCST SOUNDINGS BOTH FOR
CONVECTION ROOTED IN 800-900 MB LAYER OVER IA...AND ANYWHERE BETWEEN
SFC-850 MB ACROSS NERN MO.  MUCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG ARE EXPECTED.

..EDWARDS.. 04/16/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...

39289238 39849236 40049231 40539233 40749256 41079272
41529289 42019304 42869341 43339222 43239153 42539058
41929022 40909043 40489075 39419178 39249222 

WWWW