[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Apr 15 23:01:10 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 152259
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152259 
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-160030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0517
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0559 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WV...VA...MD...DE...DC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 189...191...

VALID 152259Z - 160030Z

PRONOUNCED SUPERCELL WITH REFLECTIVITY HOOK HAS MOVED SEWD OFFSHORE
CAPE CHARLES REGION AND OVER ATLANTIC. STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES ARE EVIDENT FROM SRN DELMARVA PENINSULA SWD ALONG COASTAL
FRONT INTO EXTREME NERN NC...W OF WHICH SFC FLOW IS WLY.  SFC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT SFC DRYING/VEERING FROM
SERN PA SWWD ACROSS SRN WV.  AIR MASS IN BETWEEN THESE BOUNDARIES
REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG HEATING AND SFC DEW POINTS GENERALLY
IN 50S F...EXCEPT ACROSS SRN WV WHERE MIXING HAS YIELDED 40S F
VALUES.  LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL CONVERGENCE IN THIS AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...THOUGH ANY SUSTAINED TSTMS
SUCH AS THOSE MOVING SEWD ACROSS NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTY VA MAY
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL FROM THERE ACROSS SRN
CHESAPEAKE BAY TO PORTIONS SRN ACCOMACK/NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES.

VIS IMAGERY AND REFLECTIVITY TRENDS INDICATE SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL
HAS DIMINISHED SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS WV...EWD ACROSS PORTIONS
WRN/CENTRAL/NRN VA...EWD TO CENTRAL/NRN DELMARVA REGION.  OVERALL
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND INCREASING SBCINH.

..EDWARDS.. 04/15/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

38097978 38357952 38467927 38587744 38477584 38347518
38177480 37727504 37097542 36557552 36487599 36577867
37727859 

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