[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 152048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152048 
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-152215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0514
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KS/NORTHEAST OK INTO WESTERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 152048Z - 152215Z

MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR SURFACE BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS INTO OK. A
WATCH COULD BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...NAMELY ACROSS EASTERN
KS INTO WESTERN MO.

MID LEVEL CONVECTION ABOVE WELL CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER -- REFERENCE
SPECIAL 18Z RAOBS FROM TOPEKA KS/SPRINGFIELD MO -- HAS PERSISTED
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN KS...WITH RELATIVELY NEWER MID
LEVEL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST KS IN AREAS NORTH/WEST OF TULSA.
WHILE THIS ACTIVITY COULD POSE A HAIL THREAT AS IT PROGRESSES ENE
INTO MO...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT/SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT MAY
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF DRYLINE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS...CURRENTLY
FROM NEAR CONCORDIA-SALINA TO WICHITA...AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK. BOUNDARY LAYER CU HAS EVOLVED OVER THE PAST
HALF HOUR INVOF THE DRYLINE. WHILE LIKLIHOOD/EXTENT OF SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION REMAINS UNCLEAR...STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS CYCLONE MAY LEAD TO
INITIATION OF DEEP CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY/AMPLE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WOULD
BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE AS STORMS DEVELOP
EASTWARD ACROSS FAR EASTERN KS INTO WESTERN MO EARLY THIS EVENING.

..GUYER.. 04/15/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

39169705 39529616 39829434 39379332 37409354 36579502
36419683 37369744 

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