[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 151909
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151908 
NEZ000-KSZ000-152115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0513
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST CENTRAL/CENTRAL INTO EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL
KS/EASTERN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 151908Z - 152115Z

SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL/CENTRAL NEB INTO EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL KS/EASTERN NEB
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. A WATCH APPEARS LIKELY BY 20-21Z.

CU FIELD CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEB
WITHIN WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW NEAR NORTH
PLATTE NEB AND IN VICINITY OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT/DRYLINE TRIPLE
POINT. GIVEN AMPLE INSOLATION/WEAKENING SURFACE BASED INHIBITION AND
INCREASINGLY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL/CENTRAL
NEB...INITIATION OF DEEP CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...ATTRIBUTABLE TO MODEST INSTABILITY AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER. SOME THREAT FOR TORNADOES MAY EXIST GIVEN AMBIENT VERTICAL
VORTICITY/STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT IN OTHERWISE MARGINAL
MOISTURE /UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS/.

..GUYER.. 04/15/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

41050041 41210144 42610157 42709844 42229754 40239689
39999795 40819917 

WWWW