[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 151843
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151842 
NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-151945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0512
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER OH VALLEY EAST TO SRN NJ/DELMARVA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 151842Z - 151945Z

AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...FROM SERN OH...
ACROSS WV...TO DELMARVA AND SRN NJ...ARE STILL BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...RECENT
TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST STORM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING
SLOWER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED.

WAVE CLOUDS OVER AND DOWNWIND FROM THE APPALACHIAN CREST APPEAR TO
BE SLOWLY ERODING AS DEEPER MIXING/HEATING CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING FRONT. BOUNDARY LAYER WAS MOST
UNSTABLE ACROSS NRN/ERN VA INTO MD ATTM AND STORMS MAY INCREASE OVER
THIS AREA WHERE LEE-TROUGH/FRONT CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS. FARTHER WEST...LIFT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
AND RESULT IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION.
PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE LACK OF GREATER LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THIS COULD LIMIT OVERALL STORM COVERAGE. IF
AN AREA OF GREATER SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL BECOMES CLEARER IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO...A WATCH IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR DEVELOPING/EVOLVING
CONVECTION.

..CARBIN.. 04/15/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...ILN...

38338039 38558253 39108304 39348192 39767974 39697725
39837517 39757439 38777481 38237539 38137602 38047797 

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