[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 150634
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150634 
VAZ000-150830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0509
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 AM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 150634Z - 150830Z

THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH SWRN VA NEXT FEW HOURS. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR INTENSIFICATION.

EARLY THIS MORNING A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES OVER SWRN VA
NEAR TIMBERLAKE. ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD ESEWD. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE
FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG AND A MODEST CAP. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOW WIND GUSTS AROUND 31 KT ALONG THE GUST FRONT. GUST FRONT
CONVERGENCE AND THE MODEST CAP SUGGEST STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP EWD NEXT FEW HOURS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS UNDERGONE SOME
STABILIZATION AND COOLING...AND THIS MAY SERVE AS AN OVERALL
LIMITING FACTOR. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE
MUCAPE SUGGEST THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL.
INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL WLY KINEMATIC PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ESEWD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC MAY ALSO
ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..DIAL.. 04/15/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

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