[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 140058
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140058 
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-140230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0492
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT THU APR 13 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA / SWRN WI / NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 178...

VALID 140058Z - 140230Z

THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES WITHIN WW 178.
FARTHER E...ANOTHER WW WILL BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF NRN IL AND FAR SRN
WI.
 
CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND WILL LIKELY
MERGE INTO ONE LARGE MCS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS
AS IT SHIFTS EWD INTO IL AND SRN WI. THREAT OF BRIEF TORNADOES WITH
INDIVIDUAL SUPERCELLS EXISTS...HOWEVER PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WINDS
WITH STRONG MESOCYCLONES APPEARS MORE LIKELY AND RELATIVELY LOW
BOUNDARY LAYER RH SUGGEST ANY TORNADOES WOULD BE BRIEF. THIS
THREAT...HOWEVER...WILL DECREASE WITH TIME AS STORMS MERGE.

ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY DIRECTLY AHEAD OF MCS IS WEAK AS SEEN ON 00Z
ILX SOUNDING...SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL SYSTEM FROM
THE SW. GIVEN LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DOWNSTREAM...ENHANCED DOWNDRAFT WINDS COULD RESULT.
THEREFORE...A NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED E OF CURRENT WATCH.

FARTHER N INTO WRN WI AND SERN MN...ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
REMAIN FOR SVR TSTORMS WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY NOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS FAR WRN WI ALONG WARM FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY POSE A WIND AND
HAIL THREAT BUT TO A LESSER DEGREE COMPARED TO ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH
WHERE INSTABILITY POOL IS LARGER.

..JEWELL.. 04/14/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...

40438757 41099387 44269319 44739194 44879131 43788782
43088794 

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