[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Apr 13 23:14:09 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 132312
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132312 
NYZ000-PAZ000-140015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0491
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0612 PM CDT THU APR 13 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN NY INTO FAR NERN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 132312Z - 140015Z

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN
NY INTO FAR NERN PA THROUGH 00-01Z...WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING AFTER
SUNSET WITH THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION.

EXIT REGION OF WNWLY 60 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX OVER LAKE HURON/LAKE
ERIE COMBINED WITH COLD 500 MB TEMPERATURES /-22 TO -24 C/ WILL
MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  30-35 KT
OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT HAIL AS THE
PRIMARY THREAT...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT SEVERE
COVERAGE.

..PETERS.. 04/13/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...

43207809 43227659 43487602 43417553 43057527 42527442
41747524 41767676 42557814 

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