[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 132159
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132159 
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-140000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0490
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0459 PM CDT THU APR 13 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN / NERN IA / SWRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 132159Z - 140000Z

MODIFIED TAMDAR/ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW A NEARLY UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT
WHERE IT HAS HEATED INTO THE UPPER 80S...ALONG LEADING EDGE OF
HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL IA TOWARD ALO.
VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATED INCREASING CU FIELD ACROSS WRN IA WHERE IT
HAS BECOME HOT...WITH RECENT TAMDAR SOUNDING SHOWING VERY DEEP MIXED
LAYER EXTENDING TO 700 MB WITH ONLY UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS. 

ALTHOUGH CU FIELD IS INCREASING OVER W CENTRAL IA...FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT REMAINS WEAK...WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN
SURFACE TROUGH. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
BE FARTHER NE ALONG WARM FRONT INTO NERN IA/SERN MN/SWRN WI WHERE
CONVERGENCE WILL BE STRONGEST AND BENEATH WEAKER CAP. 18Z PARALLEL
NAM RUN INDICATES STORMS DEVELOPING AROUND 00Z OVER SERN MN WITH
MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT INTO ERN IA. IF THIS OCCURS...A FEW
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG SHEAR PROFILES...WITH
MAINLY A LARGE HAIL THREAT...TRANSITIONING TO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
WITH TIME AS STORMS EVOLVE SEWD AND COLD POOL GROWS.

..JEWELL.. 04/13/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...

45189142 44719003 43568900 42658884 42038910 41619037
41559125 41739222 42329388 43019448 43579395 43989356
44879314 45079246 

WWWW