[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Apr 13 16:53:25 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 131651
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131651 
VAZ000-131845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0489
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 AM CDT THU APR 13 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NW INTO CNTRL VA

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 131651Z - 131845Z

DESPITE INCREASING MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY...THROUGH AND INTO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
...SURFACE HEATING AND OROGRAPHY HAVE PROVEN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
INITIATION OF CONVECTION.  THIS IS OCCURRING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST CHARLOTTESVILLE...WHERE MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
NOW APPEARS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG.  

EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATELY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW...
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE INTO/THROUGH THE CHARLOTTESVILLE
AREAS BY 18-19Z...WHEN DEVELOPING STORMS MAY BECOME ROOTED IN A DEEP
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SIZABLE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS. 
HAIL APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS MAY OCCUR IN
STRONGER CELLS...AND DOWNBURSTS ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...
GIVEN LACK OF MORE FAVORABLE MID/UPPER SUPPORT FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION...STRONGER STORMS SEEM LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED...AND ANY
SEVERE THREAT RATHER HIGHLY LOCALIZED.

..KERR.. 04/13/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

38767828 38767786 38377751 37857743 37577809 37547856
37257915 37177984 37358002 37657975 38137936 38447912
38667866 

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