[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 122208
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122207 
PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-122300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0488
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0507 PM CDT WED APR 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OH/NWRN PA/FAR WRN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 122207Z - 122300Z

ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 00-01Z ACROSS NERN OH/NWRN PA AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR
WRN NY.

BAND OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM SRN ONTARIO SWWD ACROSS LAKE ERIE TO
NORTH CENTRAL OH WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD AT 45 KT. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY IS VERY WEAK EAST OF THIS ACTIVITY...SLIGHTLY GREATER
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 500 J/KG/ ACROSS WRN OH/NRN KY IS BEING FED INTO
NERN OH PER A 40-50 KT SWLY LLJ.  STRONG FORCING SPREADING ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY REGION AT THIS TIME WILL
MAINTAIN ORGANIZED LINEAR STRUCTURE...BUT 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
ORIENTED NORMAL TO BAND OF STORMS SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT DISCRETE
STRUCTURES.

STRONGER CORES WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...
GIVEN STRONG WINDS IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE /AROUND 50 KT JUST BELOW
1 KM AGL PER CLE WSR-88D VAD/ AND INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
/25-35 DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS/ FAVORING DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSPORT.  MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. 
HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT/COVERAGE.

..PETERS.. 04/12/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

41008245 41378166 42088075 42547936 42317906 40917948
40628045 40558209 40598261 

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