[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Apr 8 16:02:24 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 081601
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081600 
GAZ000-FLZ000-081800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0473
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 AM CDT SAT APR 08 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA THROUGH PORTIONS OF NRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 081600Z - 081800Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD EWD THROUGH SERN GA
AND PORTIONS OF NRN FL BY MID AFTERNOON. A FEW SEVERE STORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

LATE THIS MORNING A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM ERN SC
SWWD THROUGH S CNTRL GA AND FARTHER SW INTO SERN AL. THIS BOUNDARY
IS MOVING SLOWLY SEWD. THE WARM SECTOR S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG ACROSS SERN
GA AND NRN FL. STRONG SURFACE HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL PROMOTE FURTHER DESTABILIZATION INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE MORNING
RAOB DATA FROM JACKSONVILLE SHOWED PRESENCE OF A MID LEVEL
INVERSION...AND THIS MAY TEND TO INHIBIT DEEP ROBUST CONVECTION A
WHILE LONGER. HOWEVER...HEIGHT FALLS AND DEEPER LAYER ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD SEWD. THIS
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL JET ON SERN PERIPHERY OF
UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT SEWD ABOVE THE WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET AND
MAINTAIN FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED STORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.

..DIAL.. 04/08/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...

30128159 29978282 32168297 32398130 31228147 

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