[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 081230
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081230 
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-081430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0471
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 AM CDT SAT APR 08 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA/ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 081230Z - 081430Z

SEVERE THREAT -- CURRENTLY LIMITED TO ELEVATED HAIL -- SHOULD
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. 
NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ATTM...ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.  INSTABILITY
REMAINS LIMITED PER 12Z GSO /GREENSBORO NC/ RAOB...AND THUS WOULD
EXPECT ANY SHORT-TERM SEVERE THREAT TO REMAIN IN THE FORM OF
MARGINAL HAIL. 

AS DAYTIME HEATING INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...EXPECT
BOUNDARY LAYER TO SLOWLY DESTABILIZE.  WITH SHEAR QUITE FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS -- AIDED BY 80-PLUS KT MID-LEVEL JET...ANY
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS. THOUGH EWD EXTENT OF THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS GIVEN DRY/STABLE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AS
REVEALED BY MORNING MHX /MOREHEAD CITY NC/...A CORRIDOR OF
SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THREAT MAY EVOLVE FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN OF NC
INTO SERN VA.

..GOSS.. 04/08/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...

37227835 37867661 36977612 35677683 34447844 34377996
35937930 

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