[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Apr 7 20:59:31 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 072056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072056 
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-072230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0458
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL...CNTRL IND

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 164...

VALID 072056Z - 072230Z

GREATEST TORNADIC THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SRN PORTION
OF WW164. ADDITIONAL TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG SWD
MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN PORTION OF WW164. LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH ALL STORMS.

SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF MULTICELLS AND SUPERCELLS TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED
IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG
AND STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR. STEEP MID-LAPSE LEVEL RATES
AS EVIDENCED BY REGIONAL 18Z RAOBS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LARGE
HAIL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE SIGNIFICANT GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
MID-LEVEL COOLING THAT HAS OCCURRED. LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC STORMS ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF WW164 AND
FURTHER S WHERE NEAR-SURFACE BACKING EXISTS. FURTHER N...THE IND VAD
PROFILER SHOWS A UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW LOW-LEVEL SIGNATURE WITH ONLY
MODEST SPEED SHEAR.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALONG THE
SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT IN VICINITY OF DEC TO MIE AT 20Z. THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER WEAK AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AS EVIDENCED BY ILX AND LSX VAD
PROFILERS SUPPORT A DIMINISHING TORNADIC THREAT ACROSS CNTRL IL.

..GRAMS.. 04/07/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

40128970 40298819 40368555 40178493 39328494 38928505
38728543 38798670 38608821 38578965 38799022 39578988 