[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 071923
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071922 
KYZ000-ALZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-072115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0457
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN LA...ERN AR...WRN AND MIDDLE TN...CNTRL AND
NRN MS AND AL...SERN MO...SRN IL...SRN IND AND WRN THROUGH CNTRL KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 162...163...

VALID 071922Z - 072115Z

THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG LONG TRACK TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
WITH STORMS MOVING THROUGH WRN AND MIDDLE TN INTO WRN AND CNTRL KY
NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM SRN IL INTO
SRN IND. OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER S ACROSS PARTS
OF SERN AR...NRN LA INTO MS AND AL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE
STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE
HAIL ONCE THEY DEVELOP.

THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AND PARTS OF THE SERN U.S. WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG FROM
NERN LA...SERN AR INTO CNTRL AND NRN MS AND NRN AL. THE 18Z RAOB
FROM JACKSON STILL SHOWED SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE 850
MB-700 MB LAYER. WARMING AND MIXING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH SEWD ADVANCING UPSTREAM VORT MAX
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR INITIATION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY
WITHIN ZONE OF MODEST WARM ADVECTION OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE
STRONG MID LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE POSITION RELATIVE
TO THE LOW LEVEL JET FOR VERTICAL SHEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELLS
WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES. NEW STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DISCRETE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. KINEMATIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TORNADOES.

TORNADOES CONTINUE TO BE CONFIRMED WITH SUPERCELLS MOVING THROUGH
WRN AND MIDDLE TN AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL KY. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST AND SHIFT ENEWD NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

..DIAL.. 04/07/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SHV...

32878673 31849259 35109139 38058958 37828555 

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