[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Apr 7 02:52:29 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 070251
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070251 
MOZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-070445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0451
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0951 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO/WRN IA...SWRN MN AND SERN SD

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 160...

VALID 070251Z - 070445Z

THREAT FOR TORNADOES APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED AS BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTINUES TO DECOUPLE. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR SVR HAIL WILL STILL
EXIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HRS OVER MUCH OF WW 160.

REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SVR STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG WRN
PORTIONS OF WW 160 /WRN IA/ OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...AS MAIN MID
LEVEL FORCING INTERACTS WITH REMAINING MODERATE INSTABILITY /MUCAPES
AROUND 1500 J/KG/. MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SVR
HAIL...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT OVER SWRN IA WHERE AIRMASS HAS NOT BEEN CONVECTIVELY
STABILIZED YET. FARTHER NORTH...MORE MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MUCAPES
LESS THAN 1000 J/KG/ ACROSS FAR NWRN IA/SERN SD AND SWRN MN/ WILL
SUPPORT MORE LIMITED SVR HAIL POTENTIAL. THUS A NEW WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED NORTH OF WW 160.

FARTHER SOUTH AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE OVER CENTRAL MO...ON THE
NOSE OF THE MID LEVEL JET...WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH SERN
PORTION OF WW 160 /CENTRAL MO/ AND INTO NERN MO OVER THE NEXT FEW
HRS. GIVEN WANING INSTABILITY AND DEEPENING STABLE LAYER IN THE
LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET...A SVR WIND THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO
BE ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO WARRANT A NEW WW OVER NERN MO /EAST OF WW
160/.

..CROSBIE.. 04/07/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...

44149680 43939777 43319714 42299637 41309594 39759527
39109505 38919373 39009273 39979196 41719231 43609452 

WWWW