[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 062153
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062153 
MOZ000-IAZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-062330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0445
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0453 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN KS INTO WRN AND CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 062153Z - 062330Z

POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD E OF WW 154 BY 23Z AND A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL
BE REQUIRED.

AS OF 21Z...MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
OVER S-CNTRL NEB WITH ATTENDANT DRYLINE SURGING ENEWD THROUGH
S-CNTRL INTO ERN KS.  INTENSE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD
OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 90-100 KT JET STREAK ARE
CONTRIBUTING INCREASING STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM MARION
COUNTY KS SEWD INTO OSAGE COUNTY OK.

STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH DIABATIC HEATING AND MODEST
BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS LATE THIS AFTERNOON E OF ONGOING STORMS WITH MLCAPES OF
1000-2000 J/KG.  REGIONAL PROFILERS AND VWPS INDICATE DESCENDING MID
AND HIGH-LEVEL JET ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS WITH 55-65 KTS OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  MOREOVER...TRENDS IN NEODESHA KS PROFILER SHOW
THAT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR HAS STEADILY INCREASED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING EWD INTO WRN AND CNTRL MO...SUGGESTING A THREAT FOR
LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES.

..MEAD.. 04/06/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...

39979556 40569467 40589317 39699257 37519211 36699275
36509328 36539433 36669483 

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