[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Apr 6 20:31:15 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 062030
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062029 
ARZ000-MOZ000-062200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0443
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL MO/NCNTRL AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 153...

VALID 062029Z - 062200Z

THE MAIN THREAT ACROSS WW 153 IS NOW EAST OF A RUE/BPK LINE.
ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE MOVED INTO SCNTRL MO AND NCNTRL AR...WITH THE
MOST INTENSE STORM NOW PASSING SE OF FLP. POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS...AS STORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NE OK AHEAD OF EWD MOVING SFC
BOUNDARY...WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS CNTRL OK. ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NW
AR/SW MO HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY STABILIZED DUE TO ELEVATED STORMS
WHICH OCCURRED EARLIER AND DESTABILIZATION WILL NEED TO OCCUR.
SPECIAL 20Z SOUNDING FROM SPRINGFIELD SHOWS MID LEVEL WARMING HAS
OCCURRED ROUGHLY IN THE 600-700MB LAYER. MLCAPE VALUES ARE 1500-2000
J/KG WITHIN INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS CNTRL OK. LAPSE RATES REMAIN
STEEP...AND WIND PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS. 

TO EXPRESS THIS INCREASING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS NE OK/NW AR...THE
HIGH RISK HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THIS AREA AS OF 20Z.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF WW 153 HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
TSTMS IS DIMINISHING...AND THE WATCH WILL LIKELY EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED
AT 23Z. A NEW WATCH WILL BE NEEDED WITHIN A FEW HOURS...POSSIBLY
INCLUDING ERN PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 155 AND POINTS FARTHER EAST.

..TAYLOR.. 04/06/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...

35479151 35079341 35809321 37319268 37639151 37169144
35999136 

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