[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 062024
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062024 
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-062230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0442
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH ERN KS...ERN NEB THROUGH WRN IA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 154...

VALID 062024Z - 062230Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TOWARD
EVENING FROM ERN KS INTO ERN NEB. THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND IS ALSO POSSIBLE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP INTO NERN NEB AND WRN IA AFTER 22Z. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN VICINITY OF THE PACIFIC
FRONT ACROSS CNTRL KS AS ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL
JET OVERTAKES THE MOIST AXIS. PRESSURE FALLS HAVE INCREASED OVER
CNTRL KS IN RESPONSE TO AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE...AND LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO UNDERWAY OVER N CNTRL
KS. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES IN THE
SHORT TERM HAS BEEN THE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
RELATIVELY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER-TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREADS.
HOWEVER...THE TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN FROM ERN KS
INTO SERN NEB...AND THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. SOME DECREASE IN
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS MAY ALSO OCCUR TOWARD EVENING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL.

ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH ERN AND NERN NEB AS
WELL AS WRN IA TOWARD EVENING AS FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADS NEWD.
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL INCLUDE SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS LINES WITH LARGE
HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE.

..DIAL.. 04/06/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF...

41939463 41409479 41239539 41629610 41739734 41809878
42329901 42829747 42609539 

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