[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Apr 6 11:02:52 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 061101
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061101 
MOZ000-KSZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-061300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0435
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0601 AM CDT THU APR 06 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...NERN KS...NWRN MO

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE 

VALID 061101Z - 061300Z

AFTER COLLABORATION WITH THE TOP/OAX/EAX WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS EXPECTED TO UPGRADE SERN NEB...NERN
KS AND NWRN MO TO A CATEGORICAL HIGH RISK AT 13Z.

H5 12-HR HEIGHT FALLS OF 210 METERS WILL SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS THE
CNTRL PLAINS THIS AFTN.  TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTN
ALONG THE DRYLINE/SFC LOW FROM SCNTRL NEB INTO CNTRL KS AS
INHIBITION IS ERODED.  STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY ORGANIZE INTO
SUPERCELLS GIVEN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES /H5 FLOW OF 105 KTS
OVER OKLA...WITH AOA 60 KTS INTO ERN KS/. 

THE 2-8KM SHEAR VECTORS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY NORMAL TO THE INITIATING
BOUNDARY TO SUPPORT DISCRETE CELLS...THOUGH ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO
EVOLVE INTO A MIXED MODE OF LEWPS/BOWS WITH TIME. 
NONETHELESS...BACKED SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW E/NE OF THE SFC LOW/WARM
FRONT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...AS THE STORMS
MOVE ENEWD AT 30-40 KTS ACROSS NERN KS...SERN NEB AND NWRN MO. VERY
LARGE HAIL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE.

..RACY/EVANS.. 04/06/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...

38339578 39589716 40779702 40919601 40319468 39399408
38529421 38249500 

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