[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Apr 4 00:21:02 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 040020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040019 
TXZ000-040215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0425
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0719 PM CDT MON APR 03 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL  TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 040019Z - 040215Z

TOWERING CU WAS DEVELOPING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER SCENTRAL
TX FROM THE DRT AREA EWD TO NEAR SAT AND AUS AREA. MODERATE-STG
INSTABILITY WILL AID IN POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL...
DESPITE MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR
DRT EWD TO JUST SOUTH OF KERRVILLE EWD TO BASTROP COUNTY. MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG EXISTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE IS RELATIVELY WEAK ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD AID IN AT LEAST AN
ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND STEEP
LOW-MID LVL LAPSE RATES...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SVR HAIL/WIND AS STORMS MOVE SEWD AROUND 15 KTS. RELATIVELY WEAK MID
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY ELY LOW LEVEL
WINDS...ENHANCING VERTICAL SHEAR. HOWEVER...SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN LOW
ENOUGH THAT AN ORGANIZED SVR THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..CROSBIE.. 04/04/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...

29969952 29660102 29230093 29000008 28939850 29609713
30209684 30049842 

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