[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Apr 3 18:17:11 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 031815
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031814 
PAZ000-NYZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-032015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0420
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 PM CDT MON APR 03 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN OH...WRN AND CENTRAL PA...SWRN NY AND
ERN/CENTRAL WV...NWRN VA...PANDHANDLE OF MD

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 146...

VALID 031814Z - 032015Z

ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH WRN PA WILL CONTINUE TO
POSE A THREAT FOR MAINLY DMGG WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS LINE. FURTHER SW..MORE
CELLULAR CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL WV AND FAR SERN OH SHOULD CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND MAY BEGIN TO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND SVR WINDS/HAIL. AREAS DOWNWIND OF TORNADO WW
146...CENTRAL PA AND ERN WV/WRN MD/VA...WILL BE MONITORED FOR
DESTABILIZING TRENDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS.

LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWS AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STG-SVR STORMS OVER WRN
PA MOVING ENEWD AROUND 30 KTS. EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS LINE MOTION
TAKE THE LINE OUT OF WW 146 INTO CENTRAL PA AROUND 19Z. ATTM THE
AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OVER CENTRAL PA IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH
MUCAPES FROM 100-300 J/KG AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. RECENT
VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS AND CURRENT FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY IN THIS AREA AHEAD OF
THE CONVECTIVE LINE. THIS SHOULD AID IN A DECREASING TREND IN THE
SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL PA. FURTHER
NORTH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY OVER SWRN NY MAY SUPPORT A
MARGINAL SVR THREAT WITH CONVECTIVE LINE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.

FURTHER SOUTH...WLY FLOW INCREASING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
HAS LEAD TO SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF ERN
WV AND NWRN VA. CONVECTION THAT WAS INTENSIFYING OVER CENTRAL WV MAY
TEND TO WEAKEN SOME AS IT MOVES INTO THIS WEAKER INSTABILITY AREA
AND OUT OF WW 146. WE WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR THE NEED FOR AN
ADDITIONAL WATCH IN THIS AREA AS WELL.

..CROSBIE.. 04/03/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

42027747 43157833 42947907 42387988 41998062 41478092
40348104 39118120 38858111 38428096 38268017 38357872
39267785 40417755 