[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 031556
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031555 
SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-031800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0419
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 AM CDT MON APR 03 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN GA...SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 031555Z - 031800Z

THUNDERSTORM INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NRN GA AND/OR FAR NE AL. AS STORMS DEVELOP...SUPERCELLS WILL HAVE A
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WITH TORNADOES BECOMING
INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE AS STORMS DRIFT EWD INTO ERN GA AND WRN SC. A
WW WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY AROUND MIDDAY AS STORMS INITIATE AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE TN VALLEY WITH RUC FORECASTS MOVING A STRONG VORTICITY MAX EWD
ACROSS NRN GA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
INCREASES...MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION AND
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECOMES ENHANCED...STORM INITIATION SHOULD
OCCUR IN NRN GA AND/OR FAR NE AL. INITIALLY STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
OCCUR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ATLANTA BUT ADDITIONAL STORMS
MAY INITIATE FURTHER SOUTH IN NCNTRL GA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN NRN
GA FOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE
WILL BE LIKELY. IN ADDITION...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AS SUPERCELLS MATURE AND MOVE EWD INTO ERN GA AND WRN SC
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 04/03/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...BMX...HUN...

33188073 33018174 33128367 33398514 33978568 34568569
34818518 34808404 34488081 33318062 

WWWW