[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Apr 3 13:35:10 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 031334
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031334 
NCZ000-SCZ000-031500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0417
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0834 AM CDT MON APR 03 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NC...SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 031334Z - 031500Z

A LINE OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS IN CNTRL NC. AS THE LINE GRADUALLY
INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE. A NEW WW MAY BECOME
NECESSARY BY 14 TO 15Z.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING EWD INTO THE REGION WITH THE RUC GRADUALLY INCREASING
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE WITH
STORMS EXPANDING SWD WITH TIME. THE GSO 12Z SOUNDING HAS SOME
INSTABILITY MAINLY ABOVE 700 MB WITH LAPSE RATES FROM 700-500 MB
LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.0 C/KM. AS SFC HEATING CONTINUES AHEAD OF
THE LINE THIS MORNING...LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEEPEN. THIS
COMBINED WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND INCREASING INSTABILITY
SHOULD RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. AS THE CONVECTION MOVES
EWD AND BECOMES MORE SFC-BASED AROUND MID-DAY...THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES.

..BROYLES.. 04/03/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...

36217813 36007746 35597730 35117762 34277905 33588048
33648121 34098159 34488147 35348000 35987888 

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