[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 031010
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031010 
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-031215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0416
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0510 AM CDT MON APR 03 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN AL...NRN/CNTRL GA...WRN SC...WRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 031010Z - 031215Z

HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST ACROSS ECNTRL AL NEWD ACROSS CNTRL/NRN GA
THROUGH MID-MORNING.  

A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET STREAK CONTINUED TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH AT DAYBREAK...WITH THE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT
SPREADING INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS.  THE TSTMS THAT GREW UPSCALE
INTO A LINEAR MCS OVERNIGHT...CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AT 10Z.  

DESPITE STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL SHEAR...COLD OUTFLOW HAS TENDED TO
DOMINATE THE STORMS THROUGH THE MORNING...LESSENING THE RISK FOR
TORNADOES.  BUT...PLUME OF STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES
SPREADING EWD FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WAS SUPPORTING LARGE HAIL.

AS THE MID-LEVEL JET STREAK DEVELOPS EWD THROUGH THE MID-MORNING
HOURS...TSTMS SHOULD INTENSIFY ACROSS NRN/CNTRL GA AND MOVE EWD INTO
PARTS OF SC.  INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL BOOST BUOYANCY
AND TSTMS MAY BEGIN TO POSE MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREATS
IN A FEW HOURS.  STRONG WSWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME WILL
ENCOURAGE BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELLS.  

UPSTREAM...TSTMS WILL TEND TO BACKBUILD INTO PARTS OF AL INTO THE
STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THESE STORMS WILL TEND TO BE MORE OF
A LARGE HAIL THREAT.

..RACY.. 04/03/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX...

33118830 34098574 34978471 35348281 35878187 35858054
34558096 33758171 32188322 32018566 

WWWW