[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Apr 3 07:59:19 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 030757
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030757 
MSZ000-030900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0415
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 AM CDT MON APR 03 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 141...

VALID 030757Z - 030900Z

WT 151 IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 09Z AND TSTMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE
WATCH BY THEN. THERE WILL BE AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND/HAIL/TORNADO
THREAT DOWNSTREAM INTO PARTS OF NRN MS NEAR/N OF KGTR BETWEEN
0830-0900Z JUST S OF THE CURRENT WATCH.  

WRN PORTION OF THE SW-NE ORIENTED LINE OF STORMS WAS BEGINNING TO
WEAKEN ACROSS SERN AR AND NWRN MS EARLY THIS MORNING. 
HOWEVER...STRONG TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS NCNTRL-NERN MS EWD INTO NRN
AL.  TSTMS ARE EMBEDDED IN A FAST UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW REGIME
AND COULD BECOME FAVORABLY ALIGNED TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY
MOVE ESEWD TOWARD AREAS NEAR/N OF KGTR.  

OTHERWISE...ACCAS BAND AHEAD OF THE LINE WAS BEGINNING TO SPROUT
INTO TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL MS NEWD INTO NCNTRL AL.  THESE STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING IN A STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME.  THOUGH THEY MAY TEND
TO BE ELEVATED /LARGE HAIL THREAT/...THEY COULD ROOT INTO THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND BEGIN TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...PARTICULARLY AS
THEY MOVE INTO CNTRL/NRN AL.

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ANOTHER WW WILL NOT BE REQUIRED ACROSS
CNTRL MS GIVEN THAT MAJORITY OF THE MASS CONVERGENCE IS POINTING
MORE TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS.

..RACY.. 04/03/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...

33799039 34248855 33918833 33418843 33078977 

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