[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 021634
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021634 
MOZ000-021830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0403
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CDT SUN APR 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH SW/S CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 021634Z - 021830Z

A TORNADO WW WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED BY AROUND 18Z...OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.

MOISTENING/HEATING OF BOUNDARY LAYER IS CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IN WARM SECTOR...EAST OF DRY LINE/COLD FRONT
TRAILING FROM SLOWLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WHICH IS NOW
WEST/NORTHWEST OF ST. JOSEPH MO.  LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL
COOLING ALREADY APPEARS TO BE OVERSPREADING DEVELOPING INSTABILITY
AXIS...AND INHIBITION IS WEAKENING.  THIS MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF
NEW BOUNDARY LAYER-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS EARLY AS 18-20Z
SOUTHEAST OF THE KANSAS CITY INTO THE SPRINGFIELD AREA.

BROKEN SQUALL LINE SEEMS LIKELY TO QUICKLY EVOLVE...IN ENVIRONMENT
WITH MIXED LAYER INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG.  70 KT MID-LEVEL
JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
MAY NOT POSSESS STRONG CLOCKWISE CURVATURE...SHEAR BENEATH 30 TO 40
TO WESTERLY 850 FLOW WILL STILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC
ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY IN STRONGER/MORE ISOLATED CELLS WITHIN LINE.

..KERR.. 04/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

38049433 38719402 39699329 39509222 39159166 38219149
37659170 36779206 36549322 36599383 37069429 

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