[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 021441
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021441 
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-021645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0400
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0941 AM CDT SUN APR 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NE KS...NW MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 021441Z - 021645Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF A WW...WHICH COULD
BECOME NECESSARY BY 18-20Z...IF NOT BEFORE.

COLD CORE OF VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND DESTABILIZATION IS SUPPORTING ONGOING
INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...JUST TO THE WEST/SOUTH WEST OF
SLOWLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING DRY LINE.  SURFACE LOW IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED NORTH NORTHWEST OF MANHATTAN KS...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MIGRATE ALONG EASTWARD EXTENDING WARM FRONT
...TOWARD THE ST. JOSEPH MO AREA THROUGH 18Z.  

INSOLATION IN WARM SECTOR ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST/
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE BOUNDARY LAYER...
BUT ENVIRONMENT ON NOSE OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WRAPPING INTO
CYCLONE IS ALREADY POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  AS STRONGER
FORCING BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD WARM SECTOR THROUGH MID DAY...
INCREASING/INTENSIFYING TRENDS TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
CONTINUE.  LARGE  HAIL WILL INITIALLY BE PRIMARY THREAT ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS. BUT...AS ACTIVITY PROGRESSES INTO
THE ST. JOSEPH/KANSAS CITY MO AREAS...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS
WILL INCREASE AS ACTIVITY BECOMES INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED IN STRONGLY
SHEARED CONVECTIVE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  SQUALL LINE MAY BEGIN TO
EVOLVE EASTWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI THROUGH THE 18-21Z TIME
FRAME.

..KERR.. 04/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

40489761 40769613 40669474 40529369 40039297 39399272
38769310 38239372 37749431 37859525 38469562 39079690
39389767 

WWWW