[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Apr 1 11:40:21 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 011139
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011139 
VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-011415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0387
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0539 AM CST SAT APR 01 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN PA...CNTRL/ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 011139Z - 011415Z

A LINE OF CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS /ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/
AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL AS IT MOVES ACROSS EXTREME NERN
PA...CNTRL/ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH LATE MORNING.  WW IS
NOT EXPECTED.

LEADING EDGE OF STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WAS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE LWR GRTLKS REGION AT DAYBREAK
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS BECOME ACTIVE
SINCE 09Z WITH A FORCED LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION ACROSS WRN NY
AND NCNTRL PA. THIS LINE SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AS IT TRANSLATES
ENEWD AT 30-35 KTS INTO CNTRL/ERN NY AND NERN PA BETWEEN 13-16Z AND
INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY AFTN.  

INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL BE MARGINAL...THOUGH A NARROW
TONGUE OF 50-55F DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE JUST AHEAD OF
THE LINE.  ANY POCKETS OF BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL BOOST BUOYANCY
AND THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION...CONTRIBUTING TO BRIEF STRONGER
UPDRAFTS.  MOREOVER...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW REGIME AOA
30-40 KTS JUST ABOVE THE SFC COULD CAUSE LOCAL OUTFLOW
ACCELERATIONS/SMALL SCALE BOWS TO DEVELOP WITH ATTENDANT ISOLD
DAMAGING WINDS...PRIMARILY LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SMALL
HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

..RACY.. 04/01/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

42117709 43277633 44137580 45067388 44687313 43957298
43017311 42287329 41947381 41627555 

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