[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Apr 28 12:03:33 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 281203
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281203 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-281400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0675
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0703 AM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM ACROSS THE TX/OK PNHDLS...SWRN AND CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 281203Z - 281400Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND STRONGER IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS FROM NERN NM EWD AND NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX
PNHDLS...AND INTO KS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HAIL.
WHILE IT DOES NOT APPEAR IMMINENT...A WATCH MIGHT BE  NEEDED FOR
SOME OF THESE AREAS THIS MORNING.

ELEVATED CONVECTION WAS ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO
THE SCNTRL PLAINS THIS MORNING AS A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS BEGIN TO IMPOSE STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE REGION.
AS A NRN STREAM IMPULSE DIGS SEWD ACROSS CO...A STRONG SRN STREAM
UPPER LOW WAS DEVELOPING EAST FROM THE AZ/NM BORDER. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE SRN SYSTEM HAS ENHANCED THE
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET AND AIDED MOISTURE TRANSPORT NWD INTO A
SW-NE ORIENTED DEFORMATION AXIS SITUATED FROM NM NEWD ACROSS KS.
CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF UPWARD MOTION/DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NRN STREAM TROUGH...AND LARGE SCALE UPPER JET COUPLING BETWEEN THE
NRN AND SRN SYSTEMS...SHOULD MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING.

DESPITE RECENT UPWARD TREND IN STORM COVERAGE ACROSS KS AND PRESENCE
OF MODEST LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM...EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITHIN DEVELOPING MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN NRN AND SRN STREAM SYSTEMS. HOWEVER...
STEEPER LAPSE RATES...STRONGER SHEAR AND FORCING ARE FORECAST TO
OVERSPREAD NM...TX/OK PNHDLS...AND SWRN KS AREAS THROUGH THE
MORNING. MORE INTENSE CONVECTION...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A FEW
ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH PERSISTENT STORM UPDRAFTS AND LARGE
HAIL...COULD DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS THROUGH THE MORNING.

..CARBIN.. 04/28/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

36349959 35100268 35460410 36460406 37170182 38820085
39589834 39259703 38369687 

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