[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Apr 26 19:41:58 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 261938
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261938 
GAZ000-FLZ000-262115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0672
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT WED APR 26 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SW GA...NE FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 261938Z - 262115Z

SEVERE THREAT SOUTH OF WW 255 SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED...
LIMITED TO AREAS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE.  AN
ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED.

LATEST RUC SUGGESTS 30 TO 35 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET MAY BE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA...
MUCH AS EARLIER PROGGED BY NAM/GFS.  THIS SEEMS TO BE ENHANCING
EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED SURFACE COLD POOL
WHICH IS PROGRESSING EAST OF THE ALBANY/VALDOSTA/TALLAHASSEE AREAS.

DIVERGENT WEAK WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF COLD POOL IS LIMITING
STRENGTH OF UPLIFT ALONG GUST FRONT...WHICH LIKELY WILL PRECLUDE
EVOLUTION OF A LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.  MOST SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION SEEMS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH/EAST OF
BRUNSWICK INTO THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY.  HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL NEW
VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE...AS GUST
FRONT PROGRESSES INTO AREAS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE.
 THIS IS WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEPEST...PROVIDING A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS SOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..KERR.. 04/26/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...TAE...

31678271 31808224 31798148 31068110 30348114 29648199
29228290 29098371 29148439 29798411 30218335 

WWWW