[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 251607
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251607 
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-251730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0651
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1107 AM CDT TUE APR 25 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX...SRN LA...SRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 251607Z - 251730Z

A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS ADVANCING
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FEATURE
HAS YET TO BECOME FOCUS FOR VIGOROUS NEW CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...BUT BROAD LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.  MOST VIGOROUS STORMS THROUGH 17-18Z SEEM LIKELY TO
EVOLVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY ITSELF.  AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE APPROACHED...CONVECTION WILL BECOME ROOTED IN MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG.  LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK...BUT MID/UPPER FLOW APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH
FOR DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST BRIEF MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT
ROTATION...WHICH WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. 
LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

..KERR.. 04/25/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

31049638 31759549 32359444 31919290 31979098 31939035
30818971 30118995 29889167 30029335 29899501 30159642 

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