[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Apr 25 06:14:59 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 250612
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250611 
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-250715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0648
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 AM CDT TUE APR 25 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN OK...NE TX...SWRN AR.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 247...

VALID 250611Z - 250715Z

ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY LINGER WITH TSTM CLUSTER EVIDENT AT
545Z OVER PORTIONS COAL/SRN PITTSBURG/NWRN ATOKA COUNTIES.  THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EWD/ESEWD ACROSS SERN OK WITH SOME POTENTIAL TO
BACKBUILD TOWARD RED RIVER VALLEY BEFORE ENTERING AR.  REPLACEMENT
WW MAY BE NEEDED SOON.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- LEFT BEHIND BY AFTERNOON
MCS -- FROM NEAR PBF WNWWD ACROSS LATIMER/PUSHMATAHA COUNTY LINE. 
SFC COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM TUL AREA SWWD ACROSS GARVIN
COUNTY...THEN NEAR SPS.  FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SEWD 10-20 KT.
 AXIS OF MAX 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EWD WITH
VEERING LLJ TOWARD CHOCTAW/MCCURTAIN COUNTIES...IN AGREEMENT WITH
CORFIDI-MCS MOTION VECTORS INDICATING SLOW TRACK THAT WAY.  EXPECT
INFLOW LAYER FOR SERN OK COMPLEX TO BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE
ELEVATED AGL THROUGH REMAINDER TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...MODIFIED RAOBS
AND RUC SOUNDING DATA INDICATES SOME PARCELS ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SERN
OK -- AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND GENERALLY S-SW OF ONGOING ACTIVITY --
REMAIN NEARLY SFC-BASED.

ANY ACTIVITY DEVELOPING FARTHER NW AND N IN WW 247 MAY PRODUCE OCNL
HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS...BUT NOT TORNADOES BECAUSE OF ITS MORE
ELEVATED/DISORGANIZED CHARACTER.

..EDWARDS.. 04/25/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

34409695 35529627 35689554 35399462 35239419 34979404
34599396 34449393 34229406 33849424 33539468 33489512
33469583 33609655 

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