[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Apr 24 01:01:24 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 240058
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240058 
MOZ000-KSZ000-240230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0630
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...WRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 240...

VALID 240058Z - 240230Z

ISOLATED CELLS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY FROM NERN KS INTO WRN MO. BASED ON LATEST SOUNDING
INFORMATION FROM SGF AND TOP...MODIFIED FOR ESTIMATED ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS NEAR THE FRONT...ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE
INCREASING.

RECENT DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE FRONT IN OTTAWA AND MORRIS
COUNTIES HAS OCCURRED ON THE SYNOPTIC FRONT WHERE SOUNDING AND
PROFILER DATA SUGGEST STORM RELATIVE HELICITY (SRH) MAY BE QUITE
HIGH. BASED ON PROXIMITY RAOB AND PROFILER DATA...0-1KM SRH WAS
CURRENTLY ESTIMATED AT OVER 150 M2/S2...WHILE 0-3KM SRH MAY BE AS
HIGH AS 400 M2/S2 FOR 300/12KT CELL MOTION. IN ADDITION TO
RELATIVELY LOW LFC OF AROUND 1-2KM NEAR THE BOUNDARY THIS WOULD
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION AND
PERHAPS TORNADO FORMATION FOR UPDRAFTS REMAINING NEAR THE FRONTAL
ZONE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

..CARBIN.. 04/24/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

37759380 38229621 38669810 39219836 39319755 38939604
38479444 38359385 38249336 37799314 

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