[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 202054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202054 
TXZ000-NMZ000-202200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0587
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 PM CDT THU APR 20 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...PARTS OF SW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 202054Z - 202200Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

INSOLATION AND MID-LEVEL COOLING...ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH...HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO.  BOUNDARY LAYER IS RATHER DRY...BUT DEEPLY MIXED
AND SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  ACTIVITY HAS
INITIATED ALONG WAVE/OUTFLOW PROPAGATING WESTWARD OUT OF ONGOING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS.  LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
AXIS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IS ALSO BECOMING FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY IN
RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL FORCING. TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR STRONGER
CONVECTION TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG EFFECTIVE
SURFACE FRONT INTO AREAS WEST OF MIDLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  SHEAR
IN CLOUD BEARING LAYER SEEMS SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...WHICH
MAY ENHANCE RISK OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...DESPITE LIMITED CAPE. 
OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST
CELLS.

..KERR.. 04/20/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

36520494 35560442 34250395 33550390 32850346 32300311
32000282 31410304 31620401 32780537 34480597 

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