[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Apr 20 09:24:41 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 200922
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200922 
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-201115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0576
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0422 AM CDT THU APR 20 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN AR THROUGH WRN TN...NRN PARTS OF
MIDDLE TN AND SWRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 200922Z - 201115Z

THREAT FOR PRIMARILY ISOLATED HAIL WILL EXIST WITH STRONGER STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF WRN TN AND SWRN KY. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO 
BE MONITORED.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF WEAK WARM
ADVECTION ALONG A MODEST 20 TO 25 KT LOW LEVEL JET FROM WRN THROUGH
MIDDLE TN AND INTO WRN AND CNTRL KY. THE ATMOSPHERE IN THIS REGION
IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MID LEVEL 700 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES FROM
7.5C TO 8C. VWP DATA SHOW EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR ONLY MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SUSTAINED STORM STRUCTURES...AND DOMINANT
STORM TYPE WILL MOST LIKELY BE MULTICELLS. HOWEVER...THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. OTHER STORMS OVER NERN AR APPEAR TO HAVE DEVELOPED
A COLD POOL AND ARE FORWARD PROPAGATING. STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL
AS HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES TOWARD WRN TN.

..DIAL.. 04/20/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

36118578 35308891 35158992 36078988 37458817 37608571 

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