[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 192253
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192253 
TXZ000-200100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0570
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0553 PM CDT WED APR 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 211...

VALID 192253Z - 200100Z

THREAT FOR SVR STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOW FOR MOST OF WW 211 FOR
THE NEXT 1-2 HRS /THROUGH 00Z/. HOWEVER THE SVR THREAT IS
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE / ESPECIALLY OVER WRN/NRN PORTIONS OF WW 211
THEREAFTER/.

A LARGE CIRRUS CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH SVR TSTM CLUSTER OVER NRN
COAHUILA MX HAS STABILIZED MUCH OF THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EWD
INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION. THIS IS EVIDENT BY A 5-7 DEG
COOLING TREND NOTED IN RECENT SFC OBS FROM DRT AND ECU. CONVECTION
ON THE NRN EXTENSION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN COAHUILA /AND
NORTH OF THE LARGE CIRRUS SHIELD/ MAY BE THE FIRST TO POSE A RENEWED
SVR THREAT AS IT MOVES INTO NRN VAL VERDE...CROCKETT AND SUTTON
COUNTIES IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. A GREATER SVR THREAT IS ANTICIPATED
WITH SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
NRN COAHUILA MX AS THEY MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AND MOVE INTO SRN
MAVERICK COUNTY /AROUND 01Z/. FURTHER NORTH...ELEVATED SVR POTENTIAL
WILL LIKELY INCREASE AFTER 00Z OVER THE NRN EDWARDS PLATEAU/CONCHO
VALLEY REGION AS ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS NORTH OF A SLOWLY
MOVING WARM FRONT.

..CROSBIE.. 04/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

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