[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Apr 19 07:05:51 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 190703
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190702 
TNZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-KYZ000-190900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0556
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 AM CDT WED APR 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KY THROUGH NERN TN AND EXTREME SWRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 190702Z - 190900Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THIS MORNING. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. AREA IS BEING
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

A PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS SPREAD EWD INTO PARTS OF
THE TN VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO ADVECT
HIGHER THETA-E AIR NEWD BENEATH THE PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES
CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AROUND
1500 J/KG. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO VEER AND SHIFT EWD
THROUGH THE TN VALLEY NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WARM ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT BECOMING MAXIMIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN TN AND
SERN KY ON THE COOL SIDE OF A NW-SE ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT.
LATEST RADAR DATA ALREADY SHOW ELEVATED STORMS INCREASING IN THIS
AREA...AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. IN ADDITION TO STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY...CLOUD LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFTS
TO ROTATE WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.

..DIAL.. 04/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...

36408250 35718305 35518412 36348439 37158496 37418391 

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