[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Apr 19 05:03:04 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 190501
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190500 
ILZ000-MOZ000-190600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0554
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CDT WED APR 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN MO...CENTRAL/SRN IL.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 203...

VALID 190500Z - 190600Z

PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
LONG-LIVED/COMPLEX CLUSTER OF SEVERE TSTMS MOVING ESEWD FROM
JEFFERSON COUNTY MO.  PORTIONS STE. GENEVIEVE/PERRY COUNTIES
MO...AND MONROE/RANDOLPH/JACKSON/PERRY COUNTIES IL ARE IN PATH OF
THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH CONTINUES TO POSE RISK OF DAMAGING
GUSTS...HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO.  CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN LOCATED INVOF OCCLUSION TRIPLE POINT WHERE MOIST BUOYANT
PARCELS ARE LOCATED...AS WELL AS MAXIMIZED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.

FARTHER E AND NE ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN IL...ELEVATED MUCAPES
AROUND 1000 J/KG ARE EVIDENT...BASED ON MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC
SOUNDINGS.  THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTMS WITH
OCCASIONAL HAIL...THROUGH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN LOW-MIDLEVELS
OF BUOYANT LAYER SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK.  MEANWHILE...GUST
FRONT HAS MOVED WELL AHEAD OF MOST REFLECTIVITY CORES ASSOCIATED
WITH W-CENTRAL IL LINE...BUT STILL PRODUCED MEASURED 51 KT GUST AT
IJX OB AT 425Z.  EXPECT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH THIS GUST FROM
TO DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTENT INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER...AND AS PARENT CONVECTION REMAINS REMOVED BY SEVERAL MILES OR
MORE FROM LEADING EDGE OF OUTFLOW.

..EDWARDS.. 04/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...

37079080 37399062 38259075 39059001 39458886 39388780
38928761 37888834 37158929 

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