[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Apr 19 02:01:29 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 190159
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190159 
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-190330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0551
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0859 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN/ERN MO....WRN IL.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 199...

VALID 190159Z - 190330Z

ONE OR TWO WWS MAY BE REQUIRED E OF PRESENT WW AREA...COVERING
PORTIONS MO/IL NEAR MS RIVER.

BROKEN BAND OF STRONG AND SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD
ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN MO...THEN ACROSS MS RIVER OVER PORTIONS WRN IL. 
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OCCLUDED FRONT FROM JUST SW DSM SSEWD TO NEAR
COU...WHERE INTENSE CLUSTER OF TSTMS APPEARS TO COINCIDE WITH
MESOLOW/TRIPLE POINT.  WARM FRONT EXTENDS SEWD FROM THAT AREA TO
NEAR SRN TIP OF IL...AND SHOULD LIFT NEWD ABOUT 10 KT. 
OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD 20-25 KT ACROSS CENTRAL
MO.  THIS WILL PRODUCE ESEWD-PROPAGATING ZIPPER EFFECT FOR TRIPLE
POINT TOWARD AREA NEAR OR JUST SW STL. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES.  RUC SOUNDINGS
OVER ERN MO NEAR WARM FRONT...AND VWP FROM STL AREA...ON COOL SIDE
OF WARM FRONT -- ARE QUITE FAVORABLE WITH 0-3 KM SRH 300-500 J/KG. 
TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED  AROUND
OCCLUSION TRIPLE POINT REGION AND SLGTLY SEWD ALONG WARM FRONT.
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS SW OF WARM FRONT WILL STABILIZE GRADUALLY
THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING...HOWEVER MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
EFFECTIVE PARCELS IN WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN ROOTED NEAR SFC FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS.  MAIN THREAT N OF TRIPLE POINT WILL BE
HAIL...WHERE BUOYANCY IS ROOTED AGL.

..EDWARDS.. 04/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...

37549252 38659239 39739284 40359357 40509339 40549195
40589077 40269045 39909016 39248983 38648962 38058959
37648966 37429018 

WWWW