[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Apr 18 20:07:53 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 182005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182005 
TXZ000-182200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0544
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...TX HILL COUNTRY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 182005Z - 182200Z

ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP BY 22Z OVER THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE
TX HILL COUNTRY FROM EDWARDS COUNTY NEWD TOWARDS LLANO COUNTY. GIVEN
THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT EXPECTED...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
ATTM.

LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU ALONG A DRYLINE FROM
EDWARDS COUNTY NEWD INTO MASON COUNTY. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO
THE MID-UPPER 90S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WITH DEWPTS IN THE 50S.
DESPITE THE LOW DEWPTS...MODERATE INSTABILITY WAS REALIZED WITH
MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG. ENOUGH CINH REMAINS AT 19Z /75-100 J/KG /
THAT TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY TAKE A FEW MORE HRS TO OCCUR.
DESPITE THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...A SUBTLE MID LEVEL WAVE
SEEN ON WV IMAGERY OVER NRN MX MAY SUPPORT SOME LARGE SCALE LIFT.

A DEEP MIXED LAYER BENEATH MODERATE INSTABILITY /DCAPES AROUND 1500
J/KG / AND STEEP LAPSE RATES UP TO 10 KFT MAY SUPPORT DMGG WIND
GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS. DESPITE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND MODERATE MID LEVEL SHEAR...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
LEVELS WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY HAIL TO MARGINAL LVLS.

..CROSBIE.. 04/18/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...

30729879 30459974 30180006 29770031 29450018 29209966
29299940 29539866 29959808 30579800 30879820 

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