[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Apr 18 03:27:25 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 180325
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180325 
SDZ000-180500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0541
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 PM CDT MON APR 17 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN SD.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 198...

VALID 180325Z - 180500Z

SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH REMAINDER
EVENING ACROSS WW AREA...THOUGH ISOLATED HAIL/GUSTS NEAR SEVERE
LEVELS MAY STILL OCCUR PARTICULARLY OVER ERN HALF OF ORIGINAL
WW...SWD ACROSS PENNINGTON COUNTY PLAINS TO NEAR NEB BORDER.  ND
ALREADY HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM WW AND REMAINING PORTIONS IN SD
PORTION MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED.

MERIDIONAL BAND OF TSTMS WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THIS
REGION...WHILE EMBEDDED CELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS MOVE NNEWD 30-40 KT.
 ONE SUCH BAND IS EVIDENT ATTM OVER ERN CUSTER/NWRN SHANNON
COUNTY...HEADED FOR CENTRAL/ERN PORTIONS OF BOTH PENNINGTON AND
MEADE COUNTIES.  PRONOUNCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS SURGED WELL E OF
CONVECTIVE BAND...FURTHER STABILIZING NEAR-SFC LAYER BEYOND AMBIENT
DIABATIC COOLING RATES.  STILL...MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS
SHOW LARGE SUBCLOUD DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ABOVE STABLE OUTFLOW LAYER
-- REMNANTS OF EARLIER/DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS.  THIS
MAY SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS TO REACH SFC...AS
WELL AS LARGE HAIL...FROM MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION.

..EDWARDS.. 04/18/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...

44200367 45930322 45920195 43020210 43000333 

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