[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 170443
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170443 
NDZ000-MTZ000-170645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0533
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/NERN MT...EXTREME NWRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 170443Z - 170645Z

BAND OF TSTMS -- NOW MOVING NNEWD NEARLY 40 KT ACROSS SRN MCCONE
COUNTY -- SHOULD MOVE TOWARD PORTIONS RICHLAND/ROOSEVELT/DANIELS
COUNTIES DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS.  THIS ACTIVITY ALSO MAY
BUILD/PROPAGATE NEWD INTO ZONE OF FAVORABLE ELEVATED WAA...AND MAY
CLIP NWRN CORNER OF ND.  THOUGH INFLOW LAYER APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED
WELL AGL...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING SFC GUSTS AS
WELL AS HAIL.  WW NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN LIMITED AREA AND TIME OF
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

VWP DATA AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND
LOW LEVEL WAA PROFILE ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH MOISTENING IN
650-800 MB LAYER WHERE EFFECTIVE INFLOW IS ESTIMATED.  ELEVATED
MUCAPES UP TO ABOUT 500 J/KG ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE JUST AHEAD OF
THIS CONVECTION.  THOUGH CONVECTIVELY STABLE...AIR MASS FROM SFC-800
MB ALSO IS RELATIVELY DRY AND SUPPORTS DCAPE VALUES COMPARABLE TO
LARGEST MUCAPES...BASED ON MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS.  GIVEN THAT
FACTOR AND SHAPE OF WET BULB PROFILE IN SUBCLOUD LAYER.  ISOLATED 58
KT GUST WAS REPORTED IN ROSEBUD COUNTY FROM THIS ACTIVITY...AND OCNL
DAMAGING GUSTS MAY CONTINUE TO PENETRATE BOUNDARY LAYER AND REACH
SFC.

..EDWARDS.. 04/17/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...

47220543 47440581 47530615 47580630 48990574 48980347
47290517 

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